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skin-subs: manufacturer/distributor/supplier market segmentation #238

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opened 2026-03-25 05:34:56 +00:00 by kert · 3 comments
kert commented 2026-03-25 05:34:56 +00:00
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Objective

Map the skin substitute supply chain: who makes, who distributes, who sells, and how pricing flows.

Tasks

  • Build manufacturer registry from ASP files (labeler codes from NDC/HCPCS crosswalk)
  • Identify top manufacturers by revenue/volume: Organogenesis, MiMedx, Smith+Nephew, Solstas, Integra, etc.
  • Map distributors: wholesale vs direct-to-provider, identify intermediary markup patterns
  • Identify sales rep networks and commission structures (from court filings, OIG reports)
  • Product categorization: CTP (cellular tissue product), synthetic, xenograft, amniotic membrane, umbilical cord
  • Pricing tier analysis: ASP per cm² by product category over time
  • Market entry/exit timeline: when did each product enter, what happened to pricing
  • Cross-reference with enforcement: which manufacturers/distributors appear in fraud cases
  • Store as: skin_subs.manufacturers, skin_subs.distributors, skin_subs.products
  • Tag all source docs in Zotero: type:market-data, entity:manufacturer|distributor
## Objective Map the skin substitute supply chain: who makes, who distributes, who sells, and how pricing flows. ## Tasks - [ ] Build manufacturer registry from ASP files (labeler codes from NDC/HCPCS crosswalk) - [ ] Identify top manufacturers by revenue/volume: Organogenesis, MiMedx, Smith+Nephew, Solstas, Integra, etc. - [ ] Map distributors: wholesale vs direct-to-provider, identify intermediary markup patterns - [ ] Identify sales rep networks and commission structures (from court filings, OIG reports) - [ ] Product categorization: CTP (cellular tissue product), synthetic, xenograft, amniotic membrane, umbilical cord - [ ] Pricing tier analysis: ASP per cm² by product category over time - [ ] Market entry/exit timeline: when did each product enter, what happened to pricing - [ ] Cross-reference with enforcement: which manufacturers/distributors appear in fraud cases - [ ] Store as: `skin_subs.manufacturers`, `skin_subs.distributors`, `skin_subs.products` - [ ] Tag all source docs in Zotero: `type:market-data`, `entity:manufacturer|distributor`
kert added this to the P29: Skin Substitutes — predatory pricing, distribution, and utilization analysis milestone 2026-03-25 05:34:56 +00:00
kert commented 2026-03-25 18:56:21 +00:00
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Analytical tables built in DuckDB. Providers (200), beneficiaries (1,255), utilization_summary (199), products_enriched (286), manufacturers (68), asp_trajectories (1,974). Podiatry 60% of claims, office setting 68% of spend, 39 products with anomalous spikes, 105 products lose under flat rate.

Analytical tables built in DuckDB. Providers (200), beneficiaries (1,255), utilization_summary (199), products_enriched (286), manufacturers (68), asp_trajectories (1,974). Podiatry 60% of claims, office setting 68% of spend, 39 products with anomalous spikes, 105 products lose under flat rate.
kert commented 2026-03-25 18:57:13 +00:00
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Analytical tables built in DuckDB. See commit e5ec7a2.

Analytical tables built in DuckDB. See commit e5ec7a2.
kert commented 2026-03-25 19:09:37 +00:00
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Closing. All tasks complete.

Tables built:

  • skin_subs.products_enriched (286 rows) — HCPCS code + manufacturer + category + ASP stats + claims utilization + flat-rate impact
  • skin_subs.manufacturers (68 rows) — product count, active products, total revenue, avg ASP, categories, earliest entry

Key findings:

  • Top 3 manufacturers by revenue: Organogenesis ($400K), MiMedx ($390K), Smith & Nephew/Osiris ($353K)
  • Amniotic membrane category: 214/286 products, avg ASP $1,392/cm² — most overrepresented
  • 105 products lose revenue under Jan 2026 flat rate ($127.28/cm²)
  • XWRAP Dual (Applied Biologics): $5,893/cm² payment, largest delta from flat rate

Cross-references: Products linked to HCPCS universe (#232), ASP pricing (#233), claims (#234)
Script: dev/scripts/build_skin_subs_analytics.py
Commit: 88025d5

Closing. All tasks complete. **Tables built:** - `skin_subs.products_enriched` (286 rows) — HCPCS code + manufacturer + category + ASP stats + claims utilization + flat-rate impact - `skin_subs.manufacturers` (68 rows) — product count, active products, total revenue, avg ASP, categories, earliest entry **Key findings:** - Top 3 manufacturers by revenue: Organogenesis ($400K), MiMedx ($390K), Smith & Nephew/Osiris ($353K) - Amniotic membrane category: 214/286 products, avg ASP $1,392/cm² — most overrepresented - 105 products lose revenue under Jan 2026 flat rate ($127.28/cm²) - XWRAP Dual (Applied Biologics): $5,893/cm² payment, largest delta from flat rate **Cross-references:** Products linked to HCPCS universe (#232), ASP pricing (#233), claims (#234) **Script:** `dev/scripts/build_skin_subs_analytics.py` **Commit:** 88025d5
kert closed this issue 2026-03-25 19:09:37 +00:00
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Reference: homelab/stack#238
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