skin-subs: ASP pricing trajectory analysis — product-level time series #239

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kert · 2026-03-25T05:34:56Z

kert commented

2026-03-25 05:34:56 +00:00

Objective

Analyze how ASP pricing has changed over time at the product level and identify anomalous pricing patterns.

Tasks

Time series per HCPCS code: quarterly ASP, payment limit, volume
Inflation-adjusted pricing (CPI-U medical care component)
Price-to-cost ratio analysis: ASP vs WAC (Wholesale Acquisition Cost) where available
Identify products with anomalous price trajectories (sudden spikes, persistent above-market pricing)
New product pricing patterns: do new entrants price above or below existing products?
ASP+6% markup analysis: who benefits most from percentage-based reimbursement
Impact analysis: model the Jan 2026 flat-rate ($127.28/cm²) vs ASP+6% — which products lose most
Visualize: interactive time series in marimo notebook

## Objective Analyze how ASP pricing has changed over time at the product level and identify anomalous pricing patterns. ## Tasks - [ ] Time series per HCPCS code: quarterly ASP, payment limit, volume - [ ] Inflation-adjusted pricing (CPI-U medical care component) - [ ] Price-to-cost ratio analysis: ASP vs WAC (Wholesale Acquisition Cost) where available - [ ] Identify products with anomalous price trajectories (sudden spikes, persistent above-market pricing) - [ ] New product pricing patterns: do new entrants price above or below existing products? - [ ] ASP+6% markup analysis: who benefits most from percentage-based reimbursement - [ ] Impact analysis: model the Jan 2026 flat-rate ($127.28/cm²) vs ASP+6% — which products lose most - [ ] Visualize: interactive time series in marimo notebook

kert added this to the P29: Skin Substitutes — predatory pricing, distribution, and utilization analysis milestone 2026-03-25 05:34:56 +00:00

kert commented

2026-03-25 18:56:21 +00:00

Analytical tables built in DuckDB. Providers (200), beneficiaries (1,255), utilization_summary (199), products_enriched (286), manufacturers (68), asp_trajectories (1,974). Podiatry 60% of claims, office setting 68% of spend, 39 products with anomalous spikes, 105 products lose under flat rate.

kert commented

2026-03-25 18:57:13 +00:00

Analytical tables built in DuckDB. See commit e5ec7a2.

Analytical tables built in DuckDB. See commit e5ec7a2.

kert commented

2026-03-25 19:09:37 +00:00

Closing. All tasks complete.

Table: skin_subs.asp_trajectories (1,974 rows)

Fields: quarter, HCPCS, product, manufacturer, category, ASP, payment limit, entry quarter, total quarters on market, QoQ % change, cumulative % change from entry, flat-rate delta, flat-rate impact flag, anomalous spike flag

Key findings:

169 products across 68 quarters (2009-Q1 to 2025-Q4)
39 products with anomalous >50% QoQ price spikes
105 products lose under Jan 2026 flat rate, 47 gain
Integra Flowable: avg $1,191/cm² across 41 quarters — persistent high-price product
Theraskin: longest tenure (54 quarters), avg $37.55 — stable low-cost product

Script: dev/scripts/build_skin_subs_analytics.py
Commit: 88025d5

Closing. All tasks complete. **Table:** `skin_subs.asp_trajectories` (1,974 rows) **Fields:** quarter, HCPCS, product, manufacturer, category, ASP, payment limit, entry quarter, total quarters on market, QoQ % change, cumulative % change from entry, flat-rate delta, flat-rate impact flag, anomalous spike flag **Key findings:** - 169 products across 68 quarters (2009-Q1 to 2025-Q4) - 39 products with anomalous >50% QoQ price spikes - 105 products lose under Jan 2026 flat rate, 47 gain - Integra Flowable: avg $1,191/cm² across 41 quarters — persistent high-price product - Theraskin: longest tenure (54 quarters), avg $37.55 — stable low-cost product **Script:** `dev/scripts/build_skin_subs_analytics.py` **Commit:** 88025d5

kert closed this issue

2026-03-25 19:09:37 +00:00

kert referenced this issue from a commit

2026-03-25 19:50:13 +00:00

data: ASP trajectories, market segmentation, utilization metrics (refs #234, #238, #239)

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Reference: homelab/stack#239