fix(notebooks,qpp): partition-filter P36 notebook; post-#620 narrative; cron-safe refarm (refs #616 #620 #615)

2026-08-14 00:26:13 -04:00
parent cb235a2036
commit d3750ce4ff
4 changed files with 67 additions and 32 deletions
--- a/dev/scripts/refarm_cms_2026_2377.sh
+++ b/dev/scripts/refarm_cms_2026_2377.sh
@@ -6,18 +6,22 @@
 # Every step is resumable/incremental — safe to re-run on partial failure.
 set -uo pipefail
 cd "$(dirname "$0")/../.."
+export PATH="$HOME/.local/bin:$PATH"
 set -a; source .env; set +a

+mkdir -p .state/comments
 LOG=.state/comments/refarm-CMS-2026-2377.log
 exec >>"$LOG" 2>&1
 echo "=== re-farm run $(date -Is) ==="

-uv run stack bib fetch-pfs-comments || echo "WARN: fetch-pfs-comments rc=$?"
-uv run stack bib backfill-comments || echo "WARN: backfill rc=$?"
-uv run stack comments extract --docket CMS-2026-2377 || echo "WARN: extract rc=$?"
-uv run stack comments extract-ocr --docket CMS-2026-2377 || echo "WARN: ocr rc=$?"
+FAILURES=0
+
+uv run stack bib fetch-pfs-comments || { echo "WARN: fetch-pfs-comments rc=$?"; FAILURES=$((FAILURES+1)); }
+uv run stack bib backfill-comments || { echo "WARN: backfill rc=$?"; FAILURES=$((FAILURES+1)); }
+uv run stack comments extract --docket CMS-2026-2377 || { echo "WARN: extract rc=$?"; FAILURES=$((FAILURES+1)); }
+uv run stack comments extract-ocr --docket CMS-2026-2377 || { echo "WARN: ocr rc=$?"; FAILURES=$((FAILURES+1)); }
 uv run stack llm index --collection comments --docket CMS-2026-2377 \
-    || echo "WARN: index rc=$?"
+    || { echo "WARN: index rc=$?"; FAILURES=$((FAILURES+1)); }

 COUNTS=$(uv run python - <<'EOF'
 from conf import connect
@@ -30,14 +34,20 @@ total, enriched = con.execute(
 print(f"comments={total} enriched={enriched}")
 s.close()
 EOF
-)
+) || { echo "WARN: counts rc=$?"; FAILURES=$((FAILURES+1)); }
 echo "$COUNTS"

+if [ "$FAILURES" -eq 0 ]; then
+  RESULT_MSG="Automated post-close re-farm ran $(date -I): $COUNTS."
+else
+  RESULT_MSG="Automated post-close re-farm ran $(date -I) — completed with $FAILURES failed steps — check log. $COUNTS."
+fi
+
 curl -sf -X POST \
  "https://git.fhirworx.io/api/v1/repos/homelab/stack/issues/615/comments" \
  -H "Authorization: token $GITEA_TOKEN" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -H "User-Agent: curl/8.5.0" \
-  -d "{\"body\": \"Automated post-close re-farm ran $(date -I): $COUNTS. Log: .state/comments/refarm-CMS-2026-2377.log. Review counts, spot-check indexing, then close this issue and milestone P37.\"}" \
+  -d "{\"body\": \"$RESULT_MSG Log: .state/comments/refarm-CMS-2026-2377.log. Review counts, spot-check indexing, then close this issue and milestone P37.\n\nIf complete: close #615, close milestone P37, and REMOVE the crontab line (re-fires annually).\"}" \
  || echo "WARN: gitea comment failed"
 echo "=== done $(date -Is) ==="
--- a/notebooks/cy2026_pfs_proposed_rule.py
+++ b/notebooks/cy2026_pfs_proposed_rule.py
@@ -295,7 +295,8 @@ def _(q):
                       ELSE 'Other'
                   END AS category
            FROM pfs.rvu_proposed
-            WHERE (mod IS NULL OR mod = '')
+            WHERE cms_rule_id = 'CMS-1832-P'
+              AND (mod IS NULL OR mod = '')
              AND status_code = 'A'
              AND non_fac_pe_rvu IS NOT NULL
            QUALIFY row_number() OVER (PARTITION BY hcpcs ORDER BY hcpcs) = 1
@@ -433,13 +434,13 @@ def _(mo, rvu_delta):
 def _(con, mo):
    _new = con.execute("""
        SELECT count(*) FROM pfs.rvu_proposed p
-        WHERE (p.mod IS NULL OR p.mod='') AND p.status_code='A' AND p.non_fac_pe_rvu IS NOT NULL
+        WHERE p.cms_rule_id = 'CMS-1832-P' AND (p.mod IS NULL OR p.mod='') AND p.status_code='A' AND p.non_fac_pe_rvu IS NOT NULL
          AND NOT EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM pfs.rvu f WHERE f.year=2025 AND f.hcpcs=p.hcpcs AND (f.mod IS NULL OR f.mod=''))
    """).fetchone()[0]
    _dropped = con.execute("""
        SELECT count(*) FROM pfs.rvu f
        WHERE f.year=2025 AND (f.mod IS NULL OR f.mod='') AND f.status_code='A'
-          AND NOT EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM pfs.rvu_proposed p WHERE p.hcpcs=f.hcpcs AND (p.mod IS NULL OR p.mod=''))
+          AND NOT EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM pfs.rvu_proposed p WHERE p.cms_rule_id = 'CMS-1832-P' AND p.hcpcs=f.hcpcs AND (p.mod IS NULL OR p.mod=''))
    """).fetchone()[0]
    mo.md(f"""
    > **Coverage caveat:** {_new} HCPCS codes appear in `pfs.rvu_proposed`
@@ -603,7 +604,7 @@ def _(QPP, pl):
 def _(alt, apm_thresholds, mo):
    _df = apm_thresholds.to_pandas()
    _df["apm_incentive_pct"] = _df["apm_incentive_pct"].fillna(0.0)
-    _df["status"] = _df["apm_incentive_pct"].apply(lambda v: "Paid" if v > 0 else "Sunset")
+    _df["status"] = _df["apm_incentive_pct"].apply(lambda v: "Paid" if v > 0 else "None under current law")

    incentive_chart = (
        alt.Chart(_df)
@@ -611,10 +612,14 @@ def _(alt, apm_thresholds, mo):
        .encode(
            x=alt.X("payment_year:O", title="Payment year"),
            y=alt.Y("apm_incentive_pct:Q", title="APM incentive payment (% of base-year Part B paid claims)"),
-            color=alt.Color("status:N", title=None, scale=alt.Scale(domain=["Paid", "Sunset"])),
+            color=alt.Color(
+                "status:N",
+                title=None,
+                scale=alt.Scale(domain=["Paid", "None under current law"]),
+            ),
            tooltip=["performance_year", "payment_year", "apm_incentive_pct", "status"],
        )
-        .properties(title="APM Incentive Payment Sunset", width=600, height=300)
+        .properties(title="APM Incentive Payment — Not a Clean Sunset", width=600, height=300)
    )

    _citations = ", ".join(sorted(set(_df["citation"])))
@@ -623,12 +628,18 @@ def _(alt, apm_thresholds, mo):
        [
            incentive_chart,
            mo.md(f"""
-            Payment year 2026 (QP Performance Period 2024) is, under
-            current law, the **last** year with a lump-sum APM incentive
-            payment (1.88% of base-year paid claims). From payment year
-            2027 onward, QP status stops paying a bonus and starts
-            (instead) determining *which conversion factor applies* — see
-            below.
+            The lump-sum APM Incentive Payment does **not** sunset
+            cleanly after payment year 2026. Payment year 2027 (QP
+            Performance Period 2025) has no incentive under current
+            law. The Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026 (CAA 2026,
+            Pub. L. 119-75) then **revives a 3.1% incentive for payment
+            year 2028 only** (`QPP[2026]`) — CMS-1848-P proposes to
+            codify that revival into 42 CFR 414.1450(b)(1) (91 FR
+            44218-44219, 44286), superseding the CY2026 Final Rule's
+            then-accurate "no incentive after 2026" narrative reflected
+            in the disposition table below. So the pattern across
+            payment years 2025-2028 is paid / paid / gap / revived, not
+            a single cutoff.

            **Sources:** `qpp.QPP` performance years 2023–2026
            ({_citations}).
@@ -642,8 +653,21 @@ def _(alt, apm_thresholds, mo):
 def _(QPP, mo):
    _cy = QPP[2026]
    _proposed = _cy.proposed
-    _qp = _cy.qp_thresholds
-    _partial = _cy.partial_qp_thresholds
+
+    # As of the CY2026 PFS Final Rule (90 FR 49980), the payment-year-2028
+    # QP/Partial QP thresholds were understood to be 75%/50% (QP) and
+    # 50%/35% (Partial QP) -- CMS-1832-P proposed, and the Final Rule
+    # finalized, "no numeric change" from those then-current-law figures.
+    # These two literals are a CITED TRANSCRIPTION of that now-superseded
+    # disposition, not a live read of `QPP[2026].qp_thresholds` /
+    # `partial_qp_thresholds` -- those fields were corrected under task
+    # #620 (CAA 2026 legislatively restored 50%/35% QP, 40%/25% Partial
+    # QP for payment year 2028; see the `qpp` module docstring "CAA 2026
+    # supersession"). Pinning the historical values here rather than
+    # reading the registry live preserves what CMS actually said in this
+    # disposition table instead of retroactively rewriting it.
+    _qp_then = "75%/50%"
+    _partial_then = "50%/35%"
    mo.md(f"""
    ### CY2026 NPRM proposed QPP changes — proposed vs. finalized disposition

@@ -658,7 +682,7 @@ def _(QPP, mo):
    | Individual-level QP determination (new Threshold Score calc, Sec. 414.1425(b)(3)) | **Finalized as proposed** (90 FR 49923–49928, 49980) |
    | Attribution-eligible beneficiary definition — expand 6th criterion beyond E/M services | **Finalized WITH MODIFICATION** — dual E/M + covered-professional-services methodology (90 FR 49980) |
    | Sunset the Medical Home Model 50-clinician limit (Sec. 414.1415(c)(7)) after the 2025 QP Performance Period | **Finalized as proposed** (90 FR 49929) |
-    | QP / Partial QP percentage thresholds | **No numeric change proposed** — remain `qp_thresholds` {_qp.payment_amount_pct:.0f}%/{_qp.patient_count_pct:.0f}% (QP), `partial_qp_thresholds` {_partial.payment_amount_pct:.0f}%/{_partial.patient_count_pct:.0f}% (Partial QP) |
+    | QP / Partial QP percentage thresholds | **No numeric change proposed** — remained `qp_thresholds` {_qp_then} (QP), `partial_qp_thresholds` {_partial_then} (Partial QP) as understood at CY2026 Final Rule publication (90 FR 49980) — **CITED TRANSCRIPTION, since SUPERSEDED for payment year 2028 by CAA 2026; see `QPP[2026].qp_thresholds`/`partial_qp_thresholds` for current law** |
    | Nominal-amount risk standards (42 CFR 414.1415(c)(3)(i)) / CEHRT requirement | **No change proposed** — cross-referenced by section only |

    Full sourced narrative: `qpp.QPP[2026].proposed.changes`.
--- a/src/qpp/init.py
+++ b/src/qpp/init.py
@@ -751,16 +751,13 @@ QPP: dict[int, QppYear] = {
                "subparagraph list for readability, with no "
                "substantive change to any other year's percentage "
                "(NPRM 91 FR 44218-44219; RIA 91 FR 44260; amendatory "
-                "text 91 FR 44286). CONCERN: this amendatory text lists "
-                "no applicable percentage for payment years 2027 or "
-                "2029 (i.e., no incentive payment in those years) and "
-                "3.1 percent for payment year 2028 -- the latter "
-                "directly bears on QPP[2026].apm_incentive_pct "
-                "(payment year 2028), which is currently coded as "
-                "None; this transcription task is scoped not to "
-                "silently correct that entry -- see module docstring "
-                "'Concern - PY2026 ... restatement discrepancy' and "
-                "task-7-report.md."
+                "text 91 FR 44286). This amendatory text lists no "
+                "applicable percentage for payment years 2027 or 2029 "
+                "(i.e., no incentive payment in those years) and 3.1 "
+                "percent for payment year 2028 -- the latter directly "
+                "bears on QPP[2026].apm_incentive_pct (payment year "
+                "2028), which was corrected under task #620; see "
+                "module docstring 'CAA 2026 supersession'."
            ),
        ),
    ),
--- a/src/rex/comments/classify.py
+++ b/src/rex/comments/classify.py
@@ -152,6 +152,10 @@ DOCKET_RULES: dict[str, str] = {
    "CMS-2026-2377": "CMS-1848-P",
 }

+# This prompt is scoped to docket CMS-2025-0304 only (skin-substitute
+# reclassification). DOCKET_RULES above maps more dockets (e.g.
+# CMS-2026-2377) to their CMS rule IDs, but do not reuse this prompt
+# for CMS-2026-2377 or any other docket without rewriting it.
 _SYSTEM = """\
 You classify public comments submitted on CMS's CY2026 PFS proposed rule
 (CMS-1832-P, docket CMS-2025-0304), specifically regarding the proposal to